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EUR/CHF: Technical Analysis (rebuy at 1.2030) for November 29, 2012

Forecast:
At 1.2/1.2030 a strong level (Support) will be formed providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 1.2270 level. Stop loss is to be placed below 1.1850.

History tends to repeat itself above the level of 1.2000 

Overview:

EUR/CHF: The market is still showing signs of strength following the break above 1.2000, now it could rebuy at the spot of 1.2030. Therefore, it will turn to a strong support. In such case, a stronger rise should be seen towards 1.2270 resistance for confirmation. Moreover, the trend is still above 50% Fibonacci retracement level, thus it will be a good sign to buy above 1.2 (rebuy at 1.2030), and sell below 1.1950.

Types of Analysis:

- Fundamental analysis: the Swissie is also quoted amid the promise to “buy unlimited euro” in order to support this market.
- Technical analysis: on a daily chart the level of 1.2 coincides with the golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels), then it indicates a bullish market.
- Sentiment analysis: psychological level is at 1.2000, in this case one should be patient to keep the trade till the end.
- Money management: always invest 3% - 7% of the capital (composite) per all trades, always risk (stop loss) 1% - 5% of the capital per all trades, and always trade high risk ratio - trade at least 1/2.
- Period: long-term.
- Stop loss must be set at 1.1950.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for November 29, 2012

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
For the last few days the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move, corrective 4 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green) was developing. Yesterday during the early Asian session we could observe descending movement from 1.2938 toward the 1.2877 level and we can consider this move as the end of the corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). Therefore, during the European and New York session this major pair started pushing higher and the price reached 1.2960 level. At the moment the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.2965 level and we are expecting to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 4, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 4 with take profit at 1.3087 (161.8% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.2905 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2854 (S2) 1.2883 (S1) 1.2900 (PP) 1.2928 (R1) 1.2957 (R2) 1.2974 (R3) 1.3002

Trading Forecast 
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the price is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2970 with stop loss 1.2905 and take profit at 1.3087 are recommended. 

GBP/USD Wave Analysis for November 29, 2012

GBP/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the GBP/USD pair was trading in a downward move, corrective (C) wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 4 wave (coloured blue) was developing. Yesterday, during the Asian session we could observe descending movement from 1.617 toward the 1.5962 level and we can consider this move as the end of the 4 wave (coloured blue). Therefore, during the European and New York sessions the GBP/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and the price retraced back to 1.6017 level. At the moment this currency pair is trading around 1.6003 level and we are expecting to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.6073 (100% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 1.5967 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.5937 (S2) 1.5961 (S1) 1.5976 (PP) 1.6000 (R1) 1.6024 (R2) 1.6039 (R3) 1.6063

Trading Forecast 
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the price is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.6010 with stop loss 1.5967 and take profit at 1.6073 are recommended. 

USD/CHF: Technical Analysis for November 29, 2012

Forecast:
Strong level (Resistance) will be formed at 0.9415 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 0.9320 level. Stop loss is to be placed above 0.9503.
Strong level (Support) will be formed at 0.9200 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at 0.9405 level. Stop loss is to be placed below 0.9180.

Range: 191 pips (Weekly).

Overview:

GBP/USD: Technical Analysis for November 29, 2012

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5985. 

GBP/USD "Pound-Dollar":
Resistance: 1.6100(sell below this level).
Support: 1.5903 (buy above this level).

Trading Recommendations:
According to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5955 and 1.6040.
The descending movement will probably be lower than 1.6100 level with the first targets at 1.6045 and 1.5925 levels.
Buy deals are recommended above the 1.5903 level with targets at 1.6013 and 1.6085 levels.

Overview:

It should be noticed that the market showed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in the narrow sideways channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5955 and 1.6040, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.5903 level with their first target at the level of 1.5980. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.6030 and further to the level of 1.6100 (it will act as a strong resistance for this week). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.6100, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.6100. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.6100 level with the first target at 1.6040. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5990 then 1.5920 (the weekly support 1).

Weekly Pivot Points: 
R3: 1.6258
R2: 1.6154
R1: 1.6089
PP: 1.5985
S1: 1.5920
S2: 1.5816
S3: 1.5751

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.