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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for November 30, 2012

2012-11-30 13:51:55 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CHF Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, impulsive (5) wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue) was developing. Yesterday during the European and the first half of the New York session we could observe descending movement from 0.9300 toward the 0.9552 level. Therefore, during the second half of the New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and the price started pushing higher reaching a new session high at 0.9297 level. Today the USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.9257 level and we are expecting to see the price higher today when development of the corrective 4 wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 0.9310(38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 0.9230 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9227 (S2) 0.9246 (S1) 0.9258 (PP) 0.9277 (R1) 0.9296 (R2) 0.9308 (R3) 0.9327

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9275 with stop loss 0.9230 and take profit at 0.93100 are recommended. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for November 30, 2012

2012-11-30 13:49:50 (читать в оригинале)

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave

For the last few days the GBP/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green) was developing. Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe sideways move between 131.53 and 131.23 level. Therefore, during the New York session the GBP/JPY pair started pushing higher and the price reached a new daily high at 131.71 level. At the moment the price is trading around 132.50 level and we are expecting to see the price lower when development of the corrective 4 wave (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 130.70 (38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 132.80 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 130.99 (S2) 131.22 (S1) 131.37 (PP) 131.60 (R1) 131.83 (R2) 131.98 (R3) 132.21

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 131.30 with stop loss 131.80 and take profit at 130.70 are recommended. 

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CHF: Under Pressure

2012-11-30 13:48:23 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/CHF is consolidating after hitting one-month low of 0.9250 on Thursday. The rate is undermined by broadly weaker demand for safe-haven USD as risk aversion decreases; much stronger-than-expected Swiss 3Q GDP annual growth of 1.4% (vs. +0.7% forecast). But USD/CHF downside is limited by positions adjustment before weekend.
Preference:
Sell below 0.9285 with targets 0.923 and 0.921 in extension.
Support Levels:
S1 - 0.923
S2 - 0.9210 (Oct. 17 reaction low)
S3 - 0.9191 (May 8 low)  
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 0.9285. Above 0.9285 look for further upside with 0.9305 and 0.932 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 0.9303 (Thursday's high)
R2 - 0.932
R3 - 0.9341 (Wednesday's high)
Technical Comment:
The pair is breaking below its support. Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics is reverting to bearish mode at oversold, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and falling.  

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY Analysis for November 30, 2012

2012-11-30 13:46:28 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Daily

 

The rate has consolidated under the level of correction 23.6% - 82.25 of Fibonacci. However, it looks like the descending movement has finished. The drop may continue towards the next level of correction 38.2% - 81.08 if the pair does not consolidate above the level of correction 23.6%. Reverse of the rate above the correctional level of 23.6% of Fibonacci enables swings towards the U.S. dollar and rate’s growth towards the level of 0.0% - 84.16 of Fibonacci. No new divergence is observed. All the indicators except for Stochastic allow us to consider the continuation of rate’s growth. In its term, Stochastic enables and makes a very possible drop of the pair, especially if the pair closes under the level of correction 23.6%.

4h

 

On the 4H chart the quotes has consolidated above the correctional level 261.8% - 82.10 of Fibonacci. Rather insignificant movements near the level of correction 261.8% show that the market is flat. Consolidation of the rate under the level of Fibonacci 261.8% enables the rate’s drop towards the level of correction 200.0% - 81.00. No new divergence is observed. The consolidation of the quotes above the level of correction 261.8% of Fibonacci enables again the rate’s growth towards the next level 323.6% - 83.18 of Fibonacci. All the indicators allow both swing to the U.S. dollar and continuation of flat fall of the pair in the direction of the level of correction 200.0%.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY: Upside Prevails

2012-11-30 13:17:45 (читать в оригинале)

Overview:
USD/JPY is trading in higher range. The rate is underpinned by buying of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 2.9% to 15.06; S&P rose 0.43% overnight) as hopes linger that a deal would be secured before the year-end deadline for the U.S. economy to dodge the fiscal cliff. Overnight, House Speaker Boehner said that there has been no substantive progress in talks on the fiscal cliff, but later Sen. Charles Schumer said there's been progress behind the scenes and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he thought Congress could finalize a deal this year. Risk appetite also boosted by higher-than-expected 5.2% rise in U.S. October pending home sales (vs. +1% forecast); upward revision in 3Q U.S. GDP to 2.7% from the 2% gain initially reported (though below 2.8% expected); lower-than-expected latest U.S. weekly jobless claims of 393,000 (vs. 395,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; expectations that opposition Liberal Democratic Party will win mid-December elections and push for aggressive monetary easing. But risk appetite dented after Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index declined to minus 6 in November from minus 4 in October. USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend.
Preference:
Buy above 82 with targets at 82.6 and 82.85.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 82.63 (Monday's high)
R2 - 82.84 (seven-and-a-half month high hit Nov. 22)
R3 - 83.00  
Alternative scenario:
Sell below 82.The downside breakout of 82 will open the way to 81.65 and 81.4.
Support Levels:
S1 - 81.68-81.65 (Wednesday's low-Nov. 21 low)
S2 - 81.4
S3 - 81.13-81.08 (Nov. 20 low-Nov. 19 low)  
Technical Comment:
The pair remains on the upside and is challenging its new resistance. USD/JPY daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish; but stochastics is bearish at overbought. 

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com