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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for June 8, 2012

2012-06-08 18:20:16 (читать в оригинале)

Intraday Technical Outlook:

The USD/CAD pair has been trading within the depicted almost identical bearish channels since Monday. This comes as retracement after a strong bullish movement that took place last month.

Yesterday the USD/CAD pair expressed the excellent bearish reaction towards the upper limit of the Yellow, Violet & Blue channels around price level 1.0370 which pushed the pair towards the lower limit of the Yellow channel around 1.0235 which constituted a strong Intraday Support for the pair.

Today, the USD/CAD pair managed to breakthrough the upper limit of the Violet & Yellow channels. Thus, the bearish retracement, which took place this week, is expected to come to an end.

The backside of the broken limit of the Yellow channel around 1.0270 will probably constitute a solid Intraday Support Level. However, the USD/CAD has an Intraday Resistance zone being tested now around 1.0350-1.0365 which is expected to hold price below before further retesting of the broken bearish channels.

In the prospect the USD/CAD pair remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above the previous congestion zone 1.0230-1.0150.

Trade Recommendations:

- Price Level 1.0270 is expected to be valid BUY entry with SL located below 1.0210.

TP levels are to be located at 1.0310, 1.0350 & 1.0410.

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The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Technical Levels and Trading Recommendations for June 8, 2012

2012-06-08 18:09:14 (читать в оригинале)

 

Overview

Proceeding Today's H4 chart we find that the pair takes downward movement after it has bounced from the resistance level 124.10 yesterday. Currently the pair is testing the support level 121.80, if the pair continues its bearish movement and is able to break the support level 121.80, the upward trend line will indicate the bearish strength providing new sellers signals to reach the support level 121.11. Breakout of this support area and closing 4H below gives strong sign of further bearish movement.

On the other hand, if the pair bounces from the support area and reverses keeping its move above the uptrend line, it will be a good opportunity to buy from few pips above the support area 120.80-121.11 to reach the resistance level 123.00. Then we should wait breaking the resistance level to continue the bullish movement. At present technical indicators provide bearish signals, but as long as the support area is not broken, the upward movement remains also invalidating the bearish outlook. So we should wait more confirmations before making the decison.

Resistance and Support levels 

R3(125.36)

R2(124.10)

R1(123.00)

S1(121.80)

S2(121.11)

S3(119.60)

Trading Recommendations 

According to the previous analysis, we recommend continue selling in case of breaking the support area with TP1 121.00 and TP2 120.05; SL closing 4 hours above the support area .

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Outlook for June 8, 2012

2012-06-08 14:37:46 (читать в оригинале)

 

Ben Bernanke did not give a sign of quantitative easing despite the external conditions. In his yesterday’s speech, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve System, announced that he did not want to give any hints regarding June 19 CB session. He also added that the Federal Reserve System will take actions in case of a worsening situation in Europe. Michele Gapin, Barclays Capital economist, noted that Bernanke promised to act once in a blue moon. If thoroughly examine Bernanke’s argumentations for the underlying conditions of May downturn (warm winter as the cause of fall in demand, as well as poor growth in workplaces), it is obvious that there are different reasons for the real slowdown and the Federal Reserve System is ready to act. But it is necessary to wait for the elections in Greece which will take place on June 17 and persuade China to implement stimulus. Yet China is increasing maximum deposit rate from 3.5% up to 3.58% and reducing maximum borrowing rate from 5.9% up to 5.05%.
Thus, it is possible to foresee a new stage of quantitative easing in Bernanke’s unwillingness to give hints regarding the nearest Federal Reserve System session.
As it was said earlier, the Bank of England refused to increase the amount of bill redemption for 50 bn pounds despite the evident need for stimulus. Probably, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System decided on acting in alignment.
The market reaction to Bernanke’s speech is also meaningful. The euro drops 50 points and then restores in three hours. The UK pound fell 20 points. Share indices are almost the same. Oil slumps 1.9% and gold 1.9% which was probably caused by gambling.
Nevertheless, it is possible to think of real QE3 dismissal, but on account of geopolitical reasons. Creation of the American military base in Syria for the following intrusion into Iran can hold the market without the stimulus as it was in 2003 when US troops were sent to Iraq.
Morning market decline is connected with the weak balance of payments in Japan. At 16:30 GMT+4 American exports surplus for April was published; consensus is -49.3 bn dollars, March reading is -51.8 bn dollars.
Technically, the decline is possible up to the June 6 minimum of 1.2440. The growth up to 1.2540 is probable from that point according to the trade balance data of the USA. In case of a positive scenario, after overcoming the 1.2555 level, the 1.2625 level will be likely to reach with further consolidation.

 

  

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Crude Oil Technical Analysis for June 8, 2012

2012-06-08 13:18:21 (читать в оригинале)

4H

Analysis:
As crude oil technical analysis for June 8 shows, the downtrend is persisting. The oil price consolidated below the 83.75 support level, which suggests further downward movement. The target of further downtrend is 75.63. The Fibonacci Fan indicates that the price has failed to correct more than by 23.6% so far. It actually means that the downtrend is really strong. In case with bearish trading, Stop Loss is recommended to be placed above the downward trend line. The Awesome indicator suggests the current movement downwards, as the last closed bar is red. It can be interpreted as the current movement downwards in the short term. OsMA also reversed downwards, promising continuous downtrend in the longer term.

Trading recommendations:

According to the results of the oil price analysis, short positions with the 75.63 target appear to be preferable. Stop Loss should be placed below the downward trend line. If a trade turns out to yield 80-100 pips, it is better to drag the trade into the “no loss” area. It is recommended to close short positions manually if OsMA turns upwards.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:

 

Awesome Oscillator – red and green bars in the indicators’ window.
OsMA – grey bars in the indicators’ window.
Trend lines – blue lines.
Support and resistance - red horizontal lines.

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 8, 2012

2012-06-08 12:46:36 (читать в оригинале)

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of a mid-term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (royal blue in the chart). Potential corrective subwave B is moving from 118.74. Within this wave we also have four subwaves (red in the chart); potential corrective subwave 4 is developing from 124.28.

The supports below are Fibonacci retracements of 119.69-124.28, 118.74-124.28.

Supports:

- 122.53 = .382 retracement
- 122.16 = .382 ret
- 121.99 = .50 ret
- 121.51-44 = .50 and .618 retracements
- 120.86 = .618 ret

However if the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 129.33-118.74, and expansions of 118.74-120.77-119.69.

- 125.00 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 125.28 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com