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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 11, 2012

2012-06-11 13:26:01 (читать в оригинале)

Intraday Technical Outlook:

 

The GBP/USD currency has mid-term Yellow channel with transverse direction tending to be bullish. However, the short-term Blue and Violet channels are relatively bearish.
The USD/CAD has its mid-term Yellow channel tending to be bearish due to the strong bearish reaction expressed at the upper limit of the Yellow channel around price level of 1.0350 which was visited on Friday.
Last Week, the USD/CAD pair showed excellent bearish reaction towards Resistance Zone 1.0350-1.0365 which pushed the pair directly towards the lower limit of the Yellow channel around 1.0210 which constituted a strong Intraday Support for the pair.
Today, the USD/CAD pair managed to breakdown the lower limit of the Violet channels. However, the Weekly bearish Gap hasn't been covered yet rendering SELLING the pair risky at the current time.
The lower limit of the Yellow channel around 1.0185 will probably constitute a solid Intraday Support Level.
The USD/CAD has an Intraday Resistance Level located at 1.0275 corresponding to the mid-line of the Yellow channel which is expected to act as a strong Intraday Resistance.
In the short-term the USD/CAD pair remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below 1.0285 (the average daily range of the pair). Otherwise, the pair is going to make a strong bullish movement towards the upper limit of the Yellow channel around 1.0345.

 

Trading Recommendations:

- Price Level 1.0185 is expected to be a valid BUY entry with SL located below 1.0140.

TP levels are to be located at 1.0210, 1.0270 and 1.0310.

Price Level 1.0275 should be watched for a possible early bearish reaction.

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for June 11, 2012

2012-06-11 13:16:12 (читать в оригинале)

 

USD/CAD Elliott Wave

Last week the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward channel developing corrective (2) wave (coloured green). During the Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement toward the 1.0353 level. We can consider this move as the end of (B) wave (coloured green). Therefore during the NY session the USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new daily low at the 1.0260 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of the bearish mood and price reached the 1.0200 level. At the moment we are at the start of the (1) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see price above 1.0500 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 1 to push the USD/CAD pair to the 1.0500 level, we can put Take Profit 1 at 1.0300 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0350. Invalidation point at 1.0200 can be used as Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. FOMC Member Lockhart Speech data that can change the rate of the pair.
Alternation: The USD/CAD pair is still in the corrective (2) wave (coloured green) and we can expect continuation of the bearish mood to the 1.0122 level (50% retrace of wave 1).

 

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 1.0202 (S2) 1.0238 (S1) 1.0260 (PP) 1.0295 (R1) 1.0331 (R2) 1.0353 (R3) 1.0388

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0240 with Stop Loss at 1.0200 Take Profit 1 at 1.0300 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0350 are recommended.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 11, 2012

2012-06-11 12:56:32 (читать в оригинале)

 

The GBP/USD pair showed a significant bullish reaction towards the support level of 1.5265 which turned our short-term view for the pair into bullish.
The 4H chart also reveals a significant resistance level located at 1.5635 which corresponds to the lower limit of a previous congestion zone and the upper limit of the bullish Yellow channel initiated at price level of 1.5265.

 

 

The lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.5400 provided Intraday Support for GBP/USD which pushed the pair to trade above its bearish channels assisted by the weekly bullish gap.
The GBP/USD pair has an Intraday Resistance Zone at 1.5600-1.5620 corresponding to the upper limit of the Yellow channel and the Average Daily Range.
The GBP/USD pair has an Intraday Support Level at 1.5500 which corresponds to the mid-line of the Yellow channel and the upper limit of the broken Violet channel and another stronger one located at 1.5400 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Yellow channel and previous Intraday bottom.
Breakdown of price level 1.5500 will probably open the way towards 1.5400 directly.

 

Based on the previous analysis

- The market offers a valid SELL entry around 1.5600-1.5620 with SL located above1.5680 and TP levels are to be located at 1.5555, 1.5495 and 1.5450.

- The market offers a valid BUY entry around 1.5400 with SL located below 1.5320 and TP levels are to be located at 1.5450, 1.5500 and 1.5590.

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for June 11, 2012

2012-06-11 12:06:46 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD par was moving upwards developing 1 and 2 wave (coloured blue). During the Friday's European session we could observe descending movement toward the 0.9820 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 2 wave (coloured blue). Therefore during the New York session the AUD/USD pair started pushing higher and price reached the 0.9940 level (new daily high). Today during the early Asian session we could observe 45 pips’ gap in this currency pair and the price reached a new high at the 1.0007 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 1 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue). At the moment we are in the corrective 2 wave and we expect to see price around 0.9900 today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 retraces 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets Fibonacci retracement (0.9820 -1.0007) with Take Profit 1 at 0.9892 (61.8% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9861 (78.6% of wave 1). Resistance level at 1.0010 can be used as a Stop Loss point. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. FOMC Member Lockhart Speech data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels
(S3) 0.9770 (S2) 0.9816 (S1) 0.9844 (PP) 0.9890 (R1) 0.9936 (R2) 0.9964 (R3) 1.0010

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9950 with Stop Loss at 1.0010, Take Profit 1 at 0.9892 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9861 are recommended.

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GBP/USD Weekly Technical Levels for June 11 - 15, 2012

2012-06-11 12:02:26 (читать в оригинале)

Weekly Technical Levels:

 

Tip (s):

R3 and S3 are considered as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. 

Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 line.

Within a strong trend the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue the movement.

In case of the breaking news release that may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach  R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is of upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
• Most of the traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurately the psychological support and resistance levels.
  

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If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com .

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