USD/JPY: Downside Prevails
2012-11-08 13:38:57 (читать в оригинале)
Overview:
USD/JPY continues to trade in lower range. The rate is undermined by flows to safe-haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.53% to 19.08, S&P fell 2.37% overnight) as belief that Obama's presidential election victory would pave way for continued partisan brinkmanship in year-end negotiations over the U.S. fiscal cliff overshadowed assurance of continued monetary stimulus for the U.S. economy from an Obama win, although Republican House Speaker Boehner said he was ready to negotiate to avoid the cliff. USD/JPY is also weighed by worries about debt-laden Greece; lower U.S. Treasury yields; and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers.
Preference:
Sell below 80.15 with targets 79.75 and 79.65 in extension.
Support Levels:
S1 - 79.76 (Wednesday's low, matching Nov. 1 low)
S2 - 79.62 (200-day moving average)
79.51 (Oct. 31 low)
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 80.15. Above 80.15 look for further upside with 80.3 and 80.45 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 80.3
R2 - 80.41-80.45 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high)
R3 - 80.57-80.68 band (Monday's high-Friday's high)
Technical Comment:
A break below 79.75 would trigger a drop towards 79.65. USD/JPY daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought; MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average.
The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com
