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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 5, 2012

2012-04-05 15:34:20 (читать в оригинале)

4Н

General situation:
On April 5 the USD/CHF pair continued its ascending movement. Having reached the resistance level, the pair reversed to the benefit of Swiss currency, so this is the reason why we can see the correction. The current signal for Buy-deals is confirmed and strong, as Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. So presently the targets for uprising movement are seen at the resistance level 0.9184 that was previously reached by the price though has not been overcome by the bulls. In case this level has been overcome, the new target for bullish trade – the third resistance level 0.9231 – will be available. The uprising movement remains the same as long as price is higher the Kijun-Sen (0.9090). While bullish trading below this line it is recommended to place Stop Loss. If the price goes lower than this line, the signal for Buy-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Buy-deals and indicating the bullish mood on the USD/CHF market.
Bollinger Bands indicates the current uprising movement, lines are expended and directed upwards, that is why it is recommended to consider long positions. MACD has reversed to downside showing the current beginning of the correction that is the reason why this indicator does not allow to open orders for Buy-deals at the moment. But in case the MACD reverses to upwards, long positions will be relevant again.

 

Trading recommendations:
On USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider long positions with first targets seen at the 0.9184 level. When this level is passed through, the target for Buy-deals will be seen at the 0.9231 level. Stop Loss is to be placed below 0.9090 and if this line goes higher, Stop Loss can be placed after it. New long positions are recommended to be opened only when the MACD reverses to upwards. With 50-60 pips of profit it will be possible to place Stop Loss to the zero area. Take profits are to be placed a bit below the target levels (10-15 pips approximately).

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 5, 2012

2012-04-05 14:42:00 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading within downward movement,during the early Asian session we could observe price reaching 1.0262 level. We can consider this move as 3 wave of the bigger C wave. Therefore during the European session this major pair continued to move in a bearish mood, the wave 5 of C wave was finished at the end of EU session at 1.0243 resistance level. Today we can see the beginning of 1 wave (coloured blue), Presently we can see the end of the wave 1 and we can expect the price to test 1.0275 level before we can see price higher again in the 3 of 1 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0242-1.0318-1.0275); the First Take Profit at 1.0350 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0395 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use end of C wave at 1.0242. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims that can affect the rate of the pair

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0189 (S2) 1.0225 (S1) 1.0247 (PP) 1.0283 (R1) 1.0319 (R2) 1.0341 (R3) 1.0377

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0275 with Stop Loss at 1.0242,Take Profit 1 at 1.0350 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0395 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for April 5, 2012

2012-04-05 14:39:08 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
As a result of Wednesday's trading day the USD/CAD pair has finished the 3 wave (coloured pink) structure of the bigger A wave (coloured blue). During the London sessions we could observe the ascending movement to the 200EMA resistance line at 0.9945 level.Therefore during the early New York session this major broker 200EMA resistance and reached 0.9973 level. We can consider this level as subway 3 of bigger 3 wave.The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level at the end of session we could observe the price reaching 0.9960. End of the final 5 wave of the bigger 3 wave was today during the Asian market when price retest yesterday high. Presently we can observe the end of 4 wave (coloured pink). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 is equal to wave 1, the First Take Profit should be at 0.9981 (78.6%% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit - at 0.9990 (100% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the 0.9945 resistance level. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Building Permits m/m,Employment Change,Unemployment Rate,Ivey PMI and USD Unemployment Claims that can affect the rate of the pair.affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9874 (S2) 0.9901 (S1) 0.9918 (PP) 0.9945 (R1) 0.9972 (R2) 0.9989 (R3) 1.0016

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9950 with the Stop Loss at 0.9945,Take Profit 1 at 0.9981 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9990 are recommended.
 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for April 5, 2012

2012-04-05 12:27:49 (читать в оригинале)

 

Wave marking analysis:
Resulting from yesterday’s trades the EUR/USD pair continued its development of the descending movement that has begun recently. By the end of the American session it has lost more than 120 pips. Proceeding from the inner dimension of the supposed 3rd wave of the current downside movement and elaboration of the target corresponding to the 1.3110 level, we can suggest that the reversal of quotes to upwards confirmed the fact that 3rd wave was completed. If that proves to be so, then, when the uprising correction within the prospect wave 4 is completed, the pair is expected to resume its decline towards the 1.3025 level or March low (1.3005).

 

Targets for the wave 3 in 1 or A:
1.3094 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
1.3048 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the wave 4 in 1 or A:
1.3148 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
1.3192 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The ascending part of the trend within wave 3 in 1 or A has targets 1.3094 and 1.3048 corresponding to 76.4% and 88.6% of Fibonacci. The breakout of the ascending channel also indicates the formation of the new part of the trend. The inner wave structure of the wave 1 or A implies the further descent, as presently the wave 3 in 1 or A is apparently being formed. Thus, the whole wave may be completed near the point 1.3100. As to the wave 4 in 1 or A, it can raise the pair towards 1.3148 and 1.3192 which is equal to 61.8% and 50.0% of Fibonacci

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 5, 2012

2012-04-05 12:08:40 (читать в оригинале)

- 4H CHART -
This week the USD/CAD pair has successfully broken the lower limit of both Violet and Blue channels with a long bearish 4H candlestick.
This bearish breakdown took place after successful "Head & Shoulders"  reversal pattern with neckline at 0.9950 rendering price levels 0.9950-0.9970 (which corresponds to the lower limit of the broken channels and the neckline for the reversal pattern) a valid SELL entry.

- The 1H -
The USD/CAD has successfully broken the lower limit of the steep bullish Violet channel thus giving a valid bearish signal.
The upper limit of the Yellow channel at 0.9970 is now considered as a significant Intraday resistance level which should be defended by bulls in order to initiate the expected bearish movement.
The lower limit of the Blue channel at 0.9945 will stand as a fragile support level; in case of breakdown, the USD/CAD pair will probably decline towards 0.9925 & 0.9888.
The expected bearish movement will probably have targets at 0.9903 and 0.9850 levels. However, trading above 1.0000 invalidates the current bearish scenario.

 

 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com