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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 12:18:48 (читать в оригинале)

4-часовой таймфрейм

General situation:
On April 11 the USD/CHF pair is trying to resume the ascending movement, though Bollinger Bands indicates the sideways movement of the price. Thus, it is recommended to refrain from opening the positions before they begin expansion. The current signal for Buy-deals is confirmed and strong as Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has reached the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the target for uprising movement is seen at the first resistance level 0.9260. In case it has been overcome, the new target for bullish trading – the second resistance level 0.9352 – will be available. The upward movement remains relevant as long as the price is above the Kijun-Sen line (0.9180). While bullish trading below this line it is recommended to place Stop Loss. When the price goes lower than this line the signal for Buy-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Buy-deals and indicating the bullish mood on the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the current sideways movement, lines are not expanding and directed sideways. Thus, it is recommended not to enter the market with any positions till Bollinger Bands expansion. MACD is directed upwards pointing at the upward movement but as Bollinger Bands is directed sideways it is better not to enter the market.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider long positions with first targets seen at the 0.9260 level but only in case of Bollinger Bands expansion to upwards. When this level has been passed through, the next target for Buy-deals will be seen at level 0.9352. Stop Loss is to be placed below 0.9180 and if this line goes higher, Stop Loss can be replaced after it. While opening new long positions MACD should indicate the uprising movement. With 50-60 pips of profit Stop Loss can be placed a bit lower than the target levels (10-15 pips approximately).

 

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 10:56:43 (читать в оригинале)

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 133.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart), A, B, and impulse subwave C that is developing from 133.19. Within this wave there are three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 130.81. On still smaller level there are A, B and C waves within it (red in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 130.17.

Now the targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 133.42-129.94-133.32, 133.32-130.08-133.19, 133.19-129.45-130.81, 130.81-128.77-130.17.

Supports:

- 127.69 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 127.07 = objective point (OP)
- 126.87 = XOP

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements 130.81-127.82.

Resistances:

- 128.96 = .382 retracement
- 129.32 = .50 ret
- 129.67 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving downwards, so it is preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices). Consider the opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count and Fibonacci Levels for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 10:55:06 (читать в оригинале)

The AUD/USD pair is developing the potential corrective wave B of the medium term uptrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0856. Within this wave there are three subwaves (light green in the chart); subwave C is developing from 1.0636 comprising A-B-C cycle that is presently developing (royal blue in the chart); the subwave C started at 1.0465. Within the latter we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 1.0355.

The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions 1.0856-1.0423-1.0636, 1.0636-1.0304-1.0465, 1.0465-1.0243-1.0355.

Supports:

- 1.0218 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0203 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0133 = OP

The upside targets are Fibonacci retracements 1.0355-1.0226.

Resistances:

- 1.0291 = .50 retracement
- 1.0306 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving downside, so it is prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/CHF Shows Up a Hanging Man

2012-04-11 10:52:05 (читать в оригинале)

Technical Outlook:

Yesterday we saw further signs of a major reversal ahead. The right shoulder resistance level at 1.4620/30 has been tested and bulls have failed to break through. Major resistance remains at 1.4790 levels. The chart shows a possible Head and Shoulder formations on a Daily Chart. If this count is fixed, it could be a major trend reversal. Therefore, we recommend to remain short and build up on fresh short positions here.

 

 

Chart Setup and Trade Recommendations:

As shown above, we are still at the possible Right Shoulder formation on the Daily Chart. Furthermore, adding to our bearish confirmation, yesterday there was a hanging man. We are 80% sure that the movement starting from here will be of the downside character resu;ting in the reversal. Also concidering the Wave Structure, we are at C (Right Shoulder) of major  AB boundary which started at 1.4790 levels (projected as strong resistance). We have 3 strong confirmations below to expect a strong reversal towards 1.3790 levels. It would be a sharp fall.

1. Right Shoulder carved out on Daily Charts

2. Bulls have failed 4 times to break through 1.4620/30 levels since last week.

3. Yesterday there was a Hanging Man, most probable move should be down hereafter.

Trade Recommendations: Issued last week, Still Holding True..

Sell @ 1.4520/40, Stop @ 1.4790, Target1 @ 1.3950, Target2 @ 1.3790.

 

Best Regards,

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY is preparing for Rally

2012-04-11 10:47:19 (читать в оригинале)

Technical Outlook:

The pair has reached the downside extensions at 105.50 levels have been met sooner than it was expected. A major past support at 105.59 has been broken through on Daily Charts (please refer to the chart below). The pair is very likely to begin a counter-trend rally today.  It is recommended to open long positions from here. Resistance levels are seen in points 108.50; the rallies are exppected to be capped by 109.00 levels.

 

 

Chart Setup and Trade Recommendations:

Looking at the chart, it is evident that the prices are stabilising at the 0.382 retracement of the rally between 97.00 and 110.50. Furthermore it has also served our downside expectations at 105.50. Bears are expected to go in for a break now, expect a rally to resume in the nearest future targetting 108.50 and 109.00 levels. It is possible that rally will be extended to 110.00 levels. The counter-rally has the potential to decline towards 102.00 levels in coming sessions, but in 3 waves. The first downside wave is expected to be completed. We need a relief counter-trend rally before we go short again.

Trade Recommendations:

Buy @ 105.60/80 levels, Stop @ 105.00/20, Target Open.

 

Best Regards,

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com