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Is Spain in default? - Fundamental Analysis for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 18:19:46 (читать в оригинале)

 

European markets experienced a strong recovery after reaching the Tuesday’s lows.

The yesterday’s Dow Jones closure caused among investors: having closed at 12715 points, below 1.68%, though during the early U.S. session it indicated the signs of upward movement.

Along with this recovery of the major exchanges, the dollar took leading position against the major currencies. The euro is far from its Monday’s lows 1.3030; it makes everything to exceed 1.32 in the next few hours, keeping the speed of European and Asian session.

This fact coincides with a certain relief that comes from Spain. The European Central Bank hinted that he could buy the Spanish debt, and thereby reducing the cost of borrowing, hitting a 5-month high on Monday.

The situation in Spain, especially on its ability to pay debt, is currently in the focus of investor. It is clear that resolving this problem cannot be taken in a hurry and partially, as the one with Greece. Spain is a huge economic power remaining in top 10 until now and, as we have said concerning Greece, money problems are to be solved with money, not politics.

It seems possible however that Spain will enter a default. The consequences for world will be grave and current leaders, who do not have surplus or decision to solve this problem are risking with their positions.

As for the pound, which technically aimed at breaking a major uptrend on medium-term charts, moves away from the danger zone and is moving towards 1.60 level that can be reached during the Wednesday’s U.S. trading session.

The yen, meanwhile slowed its growth in recent amid news on the Bank of Japan money injections into the local economy trying to boost it through the purchase of assets and discarding any rate increase interest for the nearest future.

During the American session on Wednesday the data on oil inventories are to be released at 10:30 ET as well as Fed's Beige Book (at 2:00 PM).

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 16:53:19 (читать в оригинале)

The USD/CAD 1H linear regression channels chart present above reveals the following:
The Violet channel is strongly bullish due to yesterday's quick bullish movement towards 1.0050, while the Yellow and Blue channels are almost identical in being moderately bullish.
Today we had bearish breakout below 1.0035 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Violet channel. However, Price Level 1.0018 is still acting as intraday support corresponding to the intermediate line of both the Violet & Blue channels which needs to be broken through before reaching the lower limit of the identical channels at 0.9980.
The intraday resistance levels are located at 1.0060 and 1.0075 to be watched for a possible SHORT-entry with TP levels are at 1.0020, 0.9980, 0.9950.
The nearest intraday support level which is located at 0.9970 is considered a valid BUY entry if the USD/CAD shows bulish reaction its breakdown as a SL.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 16:52:06 (читать в оригинале)

From 1.5600 to 1.6060 the GBP/USD pair was considered as bullish, as it was moving within the depicted bullish channel which has been broken through last week.
The GBP/USD pair showed the massive bearish reaction after testing the 1.6060 level and breaking down 1.5880 the prominent support level, reaching the point 1.5830 which is a support level on the 4H chart (50% Fibonacci level).
The massive bearish reaction that was able to break down the lower limit of the depicted channel favours the bearish prospective rather than bullish one. However, having failed to break through 1.5830 two successive times may bring some bullish strength into the market at least towards 1.5960, hence 1.5830 may constitute a valid short-term BUY entry towards 1.5945-1.5970 with SL as its breakdown.
What favours this expected short-term bullish retracement is that the pair was trapped between 1.5880 and 1.5830 probably forming a confirmed short-term Head & Shoulders reversal pattern to be targeting to the backside of the lower limit of the broken channel to complete the right shoulder of the major Head & Shoulders pattern.
The sideways movement this week lasted longer than expected. However the expected sceanrio is still intact as long as the GBP is still moving within the depicted ranges.
Proceeding from the former price action in the current price zone 1.5830-1.6060 we can see that the GBP/USD pair is probably forming a H&S reversal pattern with neckline at 1.5830 and the right shoulder that is expected to be placed around 1.5945-1.5970 which constitutes a valid low/risk SELL entry.
Breakdown above the last recorded high at 1.6062 invalidates the bearish scenario. However, a breakdown of 1.5830 will confirm the reversal pattern allowing the GBP/USD to reach 1.5777 and 1.5650.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 16:50:04 (читать в оригинале)

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last few weeks we could observe the strong downward movement in the GBP/JPY pair. Yesterday during the European session we could observe the descending movement from 100EMA at 130.10 level to the 128.25 level. Therefore, during the New York session the GBP/JPY pair continue to go in a bearish mood and we could see the price touching 127.80 support level.Today during the early Asian session the price retested the 127.80 level and started pushing towards 50EMA resistance line. We are expecting to the GBP/JPY pair's low today. Presently we are at the end of 3 wave (coloured pink). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 will retrace 161.8% of wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (133.33-130.10-133.20); the Take Profit at 126.84 (200% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the resistance level at 129.00.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 126.33 (S2) 127.23 (S1) 127.78 (PP) 128.68 (R1) 129.58 (R2) 130.13 (R3) 131.03

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 127.80 with Stop Loss at 129.00 and Take Profit at 126.84 are recommended

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for April 11, 2012

2012-04-11 16:46:51 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair has finished  the developing corrective (C) wave (coloured green) yesterday. During the European session we could observe the strong bullish mood and price testing 1.0000 level. Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continue pushing in a upward move and price finally reach new daily high at the end of the session at the 1.0043 level. Today on the beginning of the Asian session this major pair pushed to 1.0050 level. We can consider this move as finish of the 5 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger C wave (coloured blue). The USD/CAD did not manage to hold this level and we could observe price at 1.0015 level. Presently we can observe the beginning of the 1 wave (coloured blue). We have two possible scenarios for today. Firstly, if price continues pushing in a bearish mood, we could see next potential target at 0.9960 level. For stop loss we can use 1.0050 invalidation point. Second scenario: wave C is not over yet and if the price returns to 1.0050 level we could expect end of wave C at 1.0100 level, Stop loss for this scenario can be at 1.0020 support level. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Housing Starts and U.S Import Prices m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, Beige Book, Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Member Yellen Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9918 (S2) 0.9954 (S1) 0.9976 (PP) 1.0012 (R1) 1.0048 (R2) 1.0070 (R3) 1.0106

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0010 with Stop Loss at 1.0050 and Take Profit at 0.9960 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com