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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 13:22:52 (читать в оригинале)

From 1.5600 to 1.6060 the GBP/USD pair was considered as bullish as it was moving within the depicted bullish channel which has been broken through last week.
The GBP/USD pair showed the massive bearish reaction after testing the 1.6060 level and breaking down 1.5880 - the prominent support level, reaching the point 1.5830, which is a support level on the 4H chart (50% Fibonacci level).
However the GBP/USD pair showed the massive bearish reaction that was able to break down the lower limit of the depicted channel. We expected bullish strength at 1.5830 to come into the market towards 1.5960 - 1.5990, hence as expected, 1.5830 constituted a solid short-term BUY entry towards 1.5945-1.5970.
Proceeding from the previous price action to the current price zone 1.5830-1.6060 we can see that the GBP/USD pair is probably forming a H&S reversal pattern with neckline at 1.5830 and the right shoulder that is expected to be placed around 1.5970-1.5990 which constitutes a valid low/risk SELL entry which was triggered Yesterday with initial profit untill now.
Breakthrough above the last recorded high at 1.6062 invalidates the bearish scenario. However, a breakdown of 1.5830 will confirm the reversal pattern allowing the GBP/USD to reach 1.5777 and 1.5650.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 12:42:32 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis

Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading within the downward move. During the European session we could observe strong descending move toward to 200EMA support. Therefore during the New York session this major continue pushing in a bearish mood and we can see price at 0.9940 level. We can consider this move as the end of wave 3 (coloured blue).Today during the Asian session we could observe a pullback to 0.9960 level, and we are expecting to see price at 0.9980 today. Presently we are in corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 will be equal as wave 2, we can define the potential targets; the First Take Profit at 0.9969(78.6% of wave 2) and Second Take Profit at 0.9978 (100% of wave 2). For Stop Loss we can use the 0.9940 resistance level. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Trade Balance, NHPI m/m and USD PPI m/m, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Core PPI m/m, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9874 (S2) 0.9913 (S1) 0.9936 (PP) 0.9974 (R1) 1.0013 (R2) 1.0036 (R3) 1.0074

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short position at levels 0.9950 with Stop Loss at 0.9940,Take Profit 1 at 0.9969 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9978 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Candlestick Analysis for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 12:34:30 (читать в оригинале)

Daily

Having completed the Fibonacci corrective level of 61.8% and slightly overcome it, the bullish Harami candlestick pattern was formed. After its formation the pair has reversed to the benefit of the euro. Thus, on the daily chart we can observe that quotes are expected to reach the correction level 76.4% which is equal to 108.11% of Fibonacci though the direction of further movement of quotes will be defined near this level. If fixed above this level, the trend will be able to continue and retest the Fibonacci level of 100.0%. In case of rebound from Fibonacci level of 76.4%, the movement towards 50.0% (104.27% of Fibonacci) can be resumed.
4h

On the smaller chart we can see the clear obstacle for the prospect growth of the pair –Fibonacci correction level of 23.6%. For the last 12 hours the pair was trying to be fixed above this level but it has not succeeded yet. Therefore, as long as this level remains unbroken, the quotes cannot continue the growth. On the other hand, there are no bearish formations near this level that is why there should be no rebound from this level considering the candlestick analysis. On the contrary, the latest bullish formation indicates the possible growth of quotes.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 12:04:08 (читать в оригинале)

 

Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair was trading in a very narrow range of 30 basis points. Considering the wave structure formed by the end of yesterday’s trades, the currency pair has almost equal possibilities either to complete the ascending movement or to resume the downside mood that will in turn lead to the complication of the wave structure of the whole descending part of the trend that began on 3rd April. At the same time the MACD divergence is considered as favorable for the prospect development of the trend for the dollar’s benefit.

Targets for the continuation and complication of the downside correction or its transformation into descending impulse movement:
80.64 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the resumption of the ascending impulse movement:
82.33 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci
82.74 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the opportunity to form the global uprising part of the trend with target seen near the level of figure 85 is still relevant. Presently we can see the descending movement within the wave 4 of the global uprising trend. The current correction within the wave 4 has downside targets 80.64 which are equal to 127.2% of Fibonacci. Every day this correction is getting more and more complicated and therefore reducing the chances for resumption of the uprising part of the trend. The complication of the wave structure and recent multidirectional movements are not considered as favorable conditions on this pair. If quotes decline below the 80.50 level, the whole current wave structure will be reviewed.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 13, 2012.

2012-04-13 11:13:38 (читать в оригинале)

Pivot Point: 0.9952.

Overview:

The market will continue showing strength by going to the level of 0.9900 (11% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Therefore, the USD/CAD resistance was broken and turned into support two weeks ago (on the 2^nd of April, 2011), the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 0.9900. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity at level 0.9900 with the first objective seen at 0.995 and continues towards 1.0000 then 1.007. However, if the trend does not manage to break through and close above the level of 1.007, then downside momentum will take place, that is rather convincing. The structure of the downfall looks as non-corrective, as the market indicates a bearish opportunity at 1.0065, hence it will be a good sign to sell at this level in order to continue the downward pace towards 0.99.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events, the price is still located between 1.0070 and 0.9890.

• Buy above 0.99 with target at 0.9952 then 1.0000.
• Below 1.0065, look for further downside pace with a target of 0.99.

Technical Levels:

R3: 1,0126
R2: 1,0062
R1: 1,0016
PP: 0,9952
S1: 0,9906
S2: 0,9842
S3: 0,9796

Observation (s):

Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.

Key level at 0.99.

History will probably repeat itself at this level again.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com