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Does Spain need a rescue plan? - Fundamental Analysis, for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 18:43:16 (читать в оригинале)

 

For the second time the Spanish government had to confirm that the country does not need a rescue plan at least in the nearest future.

Whether it is reliable or not, it is evident that consequences arising from the problems of 2011 felt throughout the year emerged again and remain urgent.

In fact, regardless the fact that smaller countries like Greece and Portugal are to go forward without outside help, the fact that Spain and Italy are in the focus of the storm is very important, although we believe that with time they will slowly recover their status as top-level economies.

In general, the European landscape is considered as complex at the moment amid the release of China’s GDP of the first quarter. It was expected that the growth of the second world economy will be less than for the same period of 2011, and furthermore, will fall short of those expectations. Of course, with 8.1% growth there is no much room for discussion, and we know that the Asian giant will not fail to be such one by a few tenths of growth lower than expected. But it is clear that the growth is slowed and this is not good for the rest of the world in terms of import to China giving that this is a country where the most basic rights do not exist.

The currency that was mostly affected by the announcement, as we mentioned in the previous day, is the Australian dollar. China is the largest market for Australia, and the Thursday’s rise of the Aussie amid U.S. announcements resulted in a significant drop several hours later.

The remaining hard currency has had significant variations. The euro was fixed in the area of 1.3150 while the pound sterling was located between 1.58 and 1.60. The yen was also stable with no major changes expected during the day.
In terms of currencies related to oil, as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso it is evident that they have quickly recovered positions along with the rise in WTI future trading at $ 103.90 right now. They are expected to remain in an upward trend for the rest of the day.

During the American session was released the data on the consumer inflation which remained the same - 0 to 0.2% month-on-month. Also at 9:55 was announced the preliminary index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. And finally at 1:00 PM Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed in New York is expected to make a statement. In general this data is not expected to make significant impacts on prices.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook for April 13, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-04-13 18:23:40 (читать в оригинале)

 The Australian dollar got profits and reached the first weekly resistance 1.0450 due to the announcement of first quarter GDP of China. The data was below expectations.

Techically the Aussie is trading above the 50% of Fibonacci retracement and below 38.2%. The Australian dollar is expected to pullback towards the downtrend channel. At this level we recommend Buy-deals with medium-term objectives near the level 1.0673.

It is necessary to mention that the fractals formed on the daily chart the 1.0233 level was a strong support for the aussie; now the nearest is the fractal of 1.0515 and 1.0797.

The MACD indicator and range are showing bullish signals.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and (Linear Regression Channel) for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 18:10:45 (читать в оригинале)

Since Monday the GBP/USD has been trending up within the depicted Blue, Violet & Yellow channels.

Today the GBP/USD shows the bearish tendency in its movement after reaching the 1.5970 the important resistance level mentioned Yesterday.

After a breakdown of the the lower limits of both violet & blue channels, the pair managed to break the intermediate line of the wider Yellow channel confirming today's bearish tendency.

Therefore, retesting of the intermediate line of the Yellow channel at 1.5960 constitutes a valid SELL entry with SL to be placed above 1.6000.

TP levels are to be located at 1.5915 & 1.5870.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 15:42:33 (читать в оригинале)

4H

General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY rate of Forex on April 13 it is evident, that the price continues the slight descending movement, as frequent corrections still hinder trading. One of them is developing presently. Current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and strong as Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is why the target for prospect descending movement is seen at the second support level 80.08. In case this level has been overcome, the third support level 78.86 will be seen as target. The descending movement will remain relevant as long as the price is located below the Kijun-Sen (81.20). The rate often rises above this line. In general, the situation is quite controversial for trading. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands indicates the continuation of the descending movement; lines are restricted and directed downwards. That is the reason why currently short positions are relevant. MACD is directed upwards indicating the current corrective movement. That is why it is recommended to refrain from opening short positions but in case MACD reverses to downwards, it will indicate the possible descending trend movement.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider sell positions with target seen at level 80.08. In case this level is broken through, the next target will be seen at the 78.86 level. Stop Loss is to be placed above 81.20 and as this line goes lower, Stop Loss can be placed down. Short positions with targets listed above are to be opened in case the MACD reverses to upwards. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, Take Profits can be set approximately at 80.20 and 78.95 levels. Presently you should be very cautious as the pair is experiences frequent corrections. Refraining from entering the market is considered as good option.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for April 13, 2012

2012-04-13 13:26:04 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair was trading within the upward move yesterday. During the early European session we could observe strong ascending move in a 3 wave to the 1.0410 level. Therefore during the New York session we could observe the continuation of a bullish mood and price reaching 1.0450 level. Today during the early Asian session the AUD/USD pair push one more time and with that move we finished 3 wave (coloured pink) in the point 1.0451.the AUD/USD start descending move after bad CNY GDP result, we are expecting to see this pair higher today during the New York session. Presently we are in 4 wave (coloured pink).In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 is equal to the wave 1, we can define the potential targets to the First Take Profit at 1.0468 (78.6% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0491 (100% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0332.Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S PPI m/m, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Core PPI m/m and FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair.
 

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0242 (S2) 1.0300 (S1) 1.0336 (PP) 1.0395 (R1) 1.0453 (R2) 1.0489 (R3) 1.0548

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0390 with Stop Loss at 1.0332, Take Profit 1 at 1.0468 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0491 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com