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Fundamental Analysis, for May 1, 2012

2012-05-01 19:22:46 (читать в оригинале)

 

Standing in line with last month’s announcement the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rates from 4 to 3.75% early this morning resulting in significant downward movement of the local currency – the Australian dollar.

The slowdown in the growth of China's economy, Australia's main market including the low inflation made the BRA take a step that investors have been waiting for a long time, given that the local reference rate was and still is the highest of the major central banks.

Moreover the yen continues its upward trend on all fronts and reached a new high since February 22 during the last hours against the dollar. The targets for the downward movement which naturally favor the JPY are located in the 79.10 area corresponding to 61.8% of the rally 76.01 / 84.14.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar appears to stop its fall after the publication of an unfavorable data on GDP for the first quarter. Against all odds the measurement showed a decrease of 0.2% cancelling the loonie highs of last September reached in the recent days. The Canadian currency is expected to continue its downward trend in coming days and even break the deadlock against the dollar which is a pivots point for several weeks.

Faced with these scenarios the euro is about to reach 1.32, taking into account also that the majority of European financial markets are closed due to the Labor Day. Particularly striking is the strength of the single currency in these times. The debt crisis in several countries led by Spain whose problem of unemployment and recession has no output in the short term impacts the exchange rate of the euro. Considering all this there is a question: should we expect the announcement on interest rate cuts? On Thursday the ECB President, Mario Draghi, announced the monetary policy of the state.

In this regard, consider that recent interest rate movements were in defense of southern Europe affected by crisis that has recently reached its peak. But Germany, the Europe's engine continues to reap near-record economic figures and in fight the inflation in this country. The ECB for a second time in a row raised the interest rate. In two days we will know the further information. The country continues drawing attention to the currency affected on all fronts.

The pound sterling is more relieved although in the last hour has shown signs of weakness against the dollar by breaking the uptrend line crossing GBP / USD. Anyway, the British is not likely to be affected and could recover quickly from the movement this morning caused mainly by the UK manufacturing PMI.

As to the U.S. session on Tuesday is expected ISM manufacturing at 10:00 Eastern which is the most important news of the day.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 1, 2012

2012-05-01 15:51:46 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair has finished developing of the 3 wave (coloured blue) and start pushing higher for the 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe the upward movement toward 0.9825 level (50 EMA Resistance). Therefore during the New York session we could observe price above 200EMA. At the end of the New York session we could see the price reaching new daily high at 0.9893 level.Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a sideways move. We are expecting to see price higher today in a New York session for the end of the 4 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with simple measuring the first wave range; the First Take Profit at 0.9825 (61.8% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9779 (100% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 0.9927. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks and CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair and Pianalto’s speech that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9765 (S2) 0.9800 (S1) 0.9821 (PP) 0.9856 (R1) 0.9891 (R2) 0.9912 (R3) 0.9947

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9900 with Stop Loss at 0.9927, Take Profit 1 at 0.9825 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9779 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

2012-05-01 15:50:26 (читать в оригинале)

 

The spot rate is presently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 106.10 and is about to decline. However, a breakdown of these levels will release significant potential enabling to reach its upper limit in the point 107,10.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but as long as the resistance level is not broken, the decline is most likely to take place. Bollinger bands are much discarded due to the strong recent decline. The situation is expected to stabilize soon.  

Proceeding from previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 106,10 with 106,7 and 106,90 seen as first objectives. In case the level 105.90 is passed through, the proposed scenario will be invalidated.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave Count for May 1, 2012

2012-05-01 15:49:49 (читать в оригинале)

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair has started developing corrective wave 2 (coloured pink). During the European session we could observe the descending movement towards 1.0425 level (50 EMA Support). Therefore during the New York session the price continues the bearish mood and the price has reached its low at 1.0405 level. We can consider this move as end of (A) (coloured black) of the bigger 2 wave (Coloured pink). In late New York the AUD/USD pair started pushing higher and the price reached the 1.0430 level. We can consider this move as end of (B) wave.Today during the Asian and European session we could observe the strong bearish mood in this major and price drop to the 1.0303 level. Presently we can observe the end of 2 wave (coloured pink) and start of the 3 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0246-1.0473-1.02956); the First Take Profit at 1.0520 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0660 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0246. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks and FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair and Pianalto’s speech that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0372 (S2) 1.0396 (S1) 1.0411 (PP) 1.0435 (R1) 1.0459 (R2) 1.0474 (R3) 1.0498

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0350 with Stop Loss at 1.0246, Take Profit 1 at 1.0520 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0660 are recommended.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Candlestick Analysis for May 1, 2012

2012-05-01 15:45:30 (читать в оригинале)

Daily

As it was expected on Monday the rate has dropped below Fibonacci corrective level of 38.2%. Therefore, the key factor in the current descending movement was and is the rebound of the EUR/JPY pair from Fibonacci correction level 23.6%. Thus, we expect the quotes to fall towards Fibonacci level of 50.0% - 104.24. Considering the analysis of candlesticks patterns there is nothing to be said as no candlestick formations were formed. Nevertheless, the bullish candlestick pattern is likely to be formed near Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicating the rebound from this level with further correction.
4h

As it was mentioned in previous surveys, on the 4H timeframe the situation is the same. The rate continues its downside movement overcoming Fibonacci correction levels one by one. The quotes are also able to reach Fibonacci correction level of 0.0% - 104.62 which is almost equal to the correction level 50.0% on the daily chart. The recently formed bearish pattern is Harami. That is why considering the current analysis the rate is likely to go downwards. The formation of the bullish patter may result in slight growth but in general we expect the further decline of quotes to the levels mentioned.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com