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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for May 4, 2012

2012-05-04 16:00:19 (читать в оригинале)

4Н

General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY on May 4 we can see that the rate is fixed above the Kijun-Sen resulting in formation of buyers signal though quite weak one. This signal does not allow opening long positions. The current signal for Buy-deals is not confirmed and weak, as the Chinkou Span is located above the price chart and the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is why the target for possible ascending movement is seen near the Ichimoku Cloud. In case traders reach this level, the Senkou Span B will be considered as the next target. It is recommended to start bullish trade after the strengthening of the buyers signal, i.e. when the price is fixed above the Ichimoku Cloud. The ascending movement remains relevant as long as the price is located above the Kijun-Sen (80.10). Below this line it is recommended to place the Stop Loss for bullish trade. The signal for Buy-deals will weaken in case the price is fixed below this line. Chinkou Span is lower than the price chart but it does not confirm the current signal for Buy-deals and indicates the bearish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands shows the possible start of the ascending movement; lines are expanding and directed upwards, so long positions are relevant. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current corrective movement. It is recommended to refrain from opening long positions anyway, as the signal for Buy-deals is very weak.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider buy positions but only when the price is fixed above the Ichimoku Cloud which is far from that. In case the Cloud is passed through, it will be possible to open long positions with 81.23 seen as target. Stop Loss is to be placed below the 80.10 level and while this line goes higher Stop Loss can be placed upwards. While opening long positions MACD should be directed to the upside. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, Stop Loss is to be places into the non-loss area. Take Profits can be set around the 81.15 level.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

 

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow linesMACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for May 4, 2012

2012-05-04 14:47:44 (читать в оригинале)

Considering the hourly chart of the USD/CAD pair we can find the following:

The Yellow and Blue channels are both transverse due to the sideways consolidation range 0.9890 - 0.9830; the USD/CAD has been trading within during this week.
The Violet channel is bullish due to the yesterday's quick bullish move in reaction to 0.9830 corresponding to the lower limit of the Yellow & Blue channels
As for the Intraday perspective, the USD/CAD pair may be forming a new double bottom reversal pattern at 0.9835 which constituted the Intraday Support for the USD/CAD pair on Yesterday & last Monday. However, a bullish follow up and fixation above 0.9890-0.9900 is necessary to confirm the reversal pattern targetting at 0.9960.
The USD/CAD pair will remain bullish as long as it is trading inside the Violet channel above 0.9850 which constitutes the lower limit of Violet channel and the intermediate line of the Yellow channel.
Now the USD/CAD pair is testing the upper limit of the Yellow channel at 0.9890 and seems to be reversing. However its breakthrough will allow the pair to target the higher price level 0.9925 and 0.9960.

Price zone 0.9965-0.9955 is considered as an Intraday support zone corresponding to the lower limit of Violet channel and the intermediate line of the Yellow channel.

Based on the previous analysis:

 BUY entry at 0.9855 with SL below 0.9815 is recommended while TP levels are to be located at 0.9900 and 0.9955.

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USD/MXN Elliott Wave Count for May 4, 2012

2012-05-04 14:41:53 (читать в оригинале)

USD/MXN Elliott Wave
For the last few days the USD/MXN pair was trading in a upwards movement developing corrective 4 wave (coloured blue). Yesterday during the European session we could observe descending move towards the 12.90 level. Therefore, during the early New York session we could observe start of the bullish mood and price had reached new 2-days high at 13.01 level. We can consider this move as end of the wave 4 (coloured blue). Today during the Asian session the USD/MXN pair start descending move that confirm start of the final 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger 1 wave (coloured green).In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring the first wave range; the Take Profit at 12.77 (100% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance level at 13.022. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, FOMC Member Williams Speaks and CAD Ivey PMI that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 12.9305 (S2) 12.9630 (S1) 12.9955 (R1) 12.9970 (R2) 13.0295 (R3) 13.0620

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 12.985 with Stop Loss at 13.022 and Take Profit at 12.778 are recommended.

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 4, 2012

2012-05-04 14:39:28 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in a upwards movement. During the European session we observed descending movement towards the 0.9827 level. Therefore, during the New York session the USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and the price started pushing higher reaching a new daily high at the 0.9891 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe the price slightly lower near 0.9875 level. We are expecting to see price under the 0.9850 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets by measuring the first wave range; the First Take Profit at 0.9809 (78.6% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9783 (100% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance level at 0.9903. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, FOMC Member Williams Speaks and CAD Ivey PMI that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9804 (S2) 0.9829 (S1) 0.9844 (PP) 0.9868 (R1) 0.9893 (R2) 0.9908 (R3) 0.9932

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9870 with Stop Loss at 0.9903, Take Profit 1 at 0.9809 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9783 are recommended.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for May 4, 2012

2012-05-04 14:32:33 (читать в оригинале)

Considering the 1H Chart of GBP/USD pair and the associated Linear Regression Channels:

The GBP/USD pair has all of the Violet, Blue and Yellow channels directed downside indicating a significant bearish pressure of this week.
On Wednesday the GBP/USD pair has failed to break through the resistance zone 1.6230-1.6245. Instead it declined towards 1.6150; thus, lower bottom was made to compare with the previous one at 1.6185.
Yesterday the GBP/USD pair showed quite poor movement trapped between the suggested intraday resistance zone 1.6205-1.6220 which corresponds to the upper limit of the Yellow and Blue channels and the suggested Intraday support level at 1.6150 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Violet channel.
Now the pair is testing the intermediate line of the Yellow channel at 1.6165 which should be watched for price action.
Success of the GBP/USD pair's breakthrough above 1.6220 will allow the pair to shoot at higher levels probably at 1.6262.
Success of the GBP/USD pair's breakthrough 1.6150 will allow the pair to reach the lower levels, probably 1.6111 and 1.6080.

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