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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for May 7, 2012

2012-05-07 14:16:06 (читать в оригинале)

Having reached the price level 1.6300 ,the GBP/USD pair has been trading in downside movement within the narrow-ranged bearish violet channel.

In order to remain bearish in the neraest future the GBP/USD pair should not hold above 1.6160.

A breakdown of the resistance level 1.6160 will probably open the way to the point 1.6195 (then 1.6240) before the further resumption of the downside movement.

All of the three Linear Regression Channels for the GBP/USD pair are bearish today indicating bearish tendency of the market.
Having failed to break through the resistance level 1.6230-1.6245, the pair declined towards 1.6150; thus, a lower bottom was compared with the previous one at 1.6185.
After successful breakdown of 1.6150, the pair declined towards 1.6113 which corresponds to the lower limit of the Yellow channel.

It's important to note that the GBP/USD pair has an important resistance level  1.6150 which corresponds to the upper limit of the Violet channel & the intermediate line of both Blue & Yellow channels and another significant resistance level at 1.6175 which corresponds to the upper limit of the Yellow & Blue channels.

Price levels 1.6150 & 1.6175 are considered valid SELL entries with TP levels located at 1.6111, 1.6075 and 1.6025.

SL should be located above 1.6200

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 07, 2012

2012-05-07 13:16:09 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/CAD pair has finished development of the corrective wave (C) (coloured green) and started to develop the wave (1) (coloured green). Presently we can observe developing of the 4 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (1) wave coloured green). During the Friday's European session we could observe ascending movement towards the 0.9895 level. Therefore during the New York session we could observe continuation of the bullish mood and price above 0.9955 level.Today during the early Asian session price start pushing higher and reached 10 Days high at 0.9985 level. We can consider this move as end of the 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 100% of the wave 2, we can define the potential targets with messuring the 2 wave and Take Profit at 0.9917 (100% of wave 2). For Stop Loss the resistance level at 0.9985 can be used. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Building Permits m/m, Gov Council Member Murray Speaks and USD Consumer Credit m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9823 (S2) 0.9862 (S1) 0.9886 (PP) 0.9925 (R1) 0.9964 (R2) 0.9988 (R3) 1.0027

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9950 with Stop Loss at 0.9985 and Take Profit at 0.9917 are recommended.

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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave Count for May 07, 2012

2012-05-07 13:10:29 (читать в оригинале)

 

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
Last week the GBP/JPY pair was developing 1 and 2 wave (coloured blue). Presently we can observe the development of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger C wave (coloured green). During the Friday's Asian session the GBP/JPY pair dropped towards the 129.65 level. Therefore during the European and New York session we could observe the continuation of the bearish mood and price under 129.00 level.Today during the Asian session the price started a downward movement testing the 128.35 support level. Presently we can observe the price above 128.80 level and we are expecting to see it under the 126.35 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (131.80-129.06-130.70) and Take Profit at 126.35 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss the resistance level at 129.50 can be used.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 128.13 (S2) 128.57 (S1) 128.84 (PP) 129.27 (R1) 129.71 (R2) 129.98 (R3) 130.41

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 128.50 with Stop Loss at 129.50 and Take Profit at 126.35 are recommended.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for May 7, 2012

2012-05-07 12:51:29 (читать в оригинале)

4H

General picture:
Analyzing the USD/JPY rate we can see that on Friday it was fixed below the Kijun-Sen resulting in formation of the Dead Cross, so short positions are relevant. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and strong, as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why targets for possible downside movement are seen at the first support level 79.45. In case it has been passed through, the second support level 79.06 will be considered as the next objective. The downward movement remains relevant as long as the price is located below the Kijun-Sen line (80.10). Stop Loss is to be placed above this line while bearish trade. In case the price is fixed above this line, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken. Chinkou Span is below the price chart, confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicates the bearish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands pints at possible beginning of the descending movement; lines are slightly expanding and directed downwards, so short positions are preferable. MACD is directed downwards, indicating the current downside movement that is why short positions are to be opened and supported until the correction begins. The MACD will provide signal of this event.

 

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider Sell-positions with the point 79.46 considered as the first target. In case this target has been passed through, the bearish trade will be possible with objective seen at the 79.06 level. Stop Loss is to be placed above the 80.10 and as this line goes down, Stop loss can be placed downwards. You can reduce sellers orders manually when the MACD reversed to upside. When the price passes 30-50 pips to the required side, Stop Loss can be placed after it. Take profits are to be placed approximately at levels 79.50 and 79.10.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for May 7, 2012

2012-05-07 12:14:29 (читать в оригинале)

 

Wave marking analysis:
On Friday during the Asian and European sessions the EUR/USD pair completed the wave 2 (or B), resumed the descending movement and by the end of the day had been fixed near the point 1.3080. Such drop of 100 pips from the daily high looks rather strong, so the downside movement is likely to reach the level of figure 30. At the same time it is necessary to mention that in case this movement develops as a correction in relation to the part of the trend of April 15 and May 1, the price can pass though this strong support level again.

 

Targets for resumption of the descending part of the trend within the wave 3 in C in 3 or C: 
1.3064 – 61.8% of Fibonacci
1.2996 – 100.0% of Fibonacci

Targets for the wave 4 in 3 or C:
1.3087 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
1.3145 – 38.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The Friday’s descent points at the continuation of the development of the wave 3 or C. The targets for the current downward movement are seen at 1.3064 and 1.2996 which is equal to 61.8% and 100.0% of Fibonacci. On the smaller level we can observe the wave 3 or C; the wave 2 or B has been completed. The location of the MACD near the zero level indicates that the pair has an opportunity to decline with 1.3000 seen as possible target.

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