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AUD/USD Is Time to Buy for May 16, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-05-16 18:36:13 (читать в оригинале)

 

The Australian dollar recovers positions after having yielded to the lower to the level of daily fractal 0.9870 area which coincides with the second weekly support level. Considering that  the U.S. dollar is weakening in all the fronts, we recommend buying the the AUD / USD pair with goals in the next fractal around 1.0153.

The MACD and Momentum indicator are showing a strong upward bounce.

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Fundamental Analysis, for May 16, 2012

2012-05-16 17:53:28 (читать в оригинале)

 

A new chapter in the political and economic crisis affecting the old continent began with the announcement of Greek call for new elections due to the impossibility of forming a government which has led to the decline of the euro on Tuesday. This current recovery could be extended for a few hours but without any medium and long term prospective.

Technically, the EUR / USD pair movement looks alarming for those who rely on a quick recovery of the single currency. Something similar happens on the GBP / USD daily chart in which the price broke a trendline on the daily chart but is also very strong. In both cases the European currencies could continue their downward path for a long time, beyond recovery which can take place in the U.S. session on Wednesday.

The yen is looking strange as well in the last hours as it crosses EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY literally flying from one direction to another expanding its range of prices to hundreds of points.

The situation will stabilize in the near future, no doubt. But markets tend to overstate the case; the Greek crisis, after a nation of little weight in the European concert, serves as a trigger to move markets giving the impression that the euro is at risk again. Not very far from reality. Since the area of 0.80 was extended to almost 1.30, the stretch is too great to underestimate a coin and Germany as support, followed closely by powers such as France, Spain and Italy, although they are in crisis.

The news of the day calendar, which showed a diffuse 1.6% inflation in the euro area (with the block divided between rich and poor south north; I really do not know if this is good or bad), oil inventories 10:30 (you can move the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso in shape), and the FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM, all in the United States.

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count for May 16, 2012

2012-05-16 15:07:43 (читать в оригинале)

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
For the last two weeks the EUR/USD pair has been developing 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured green). Yesterday the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward movement. During the European session we could observe the ascending movement towards the 1.2865 level. Therefore during the New York session the EUR/USD did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching 1.2720 level (daily low). Today during the Asian session the price continue trading in a bearish mood reaching 1.2680 level.We can consider this move as end of the 3 wave (coloured pink). Presently we can observe 3 impulsive wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.3380-1.2993-1.3282) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2600 (161.8% of wave 1). The resistance point at 1.2750 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Crude Oil Inventories,FOMC Meeting Minutes that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.2625 (S2) 1.2681 (S1) 1.2716 (PP) 1.2772 (R1) 1.2828 (R2) 1.2863 (R3) 1.2919

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.2700 with Stop Loss at 1.2750 and Take Profit at 1.2600 are recommended.

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 16, 2012

2012-05-16 15:04:43 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward movement. During the early European session we could observe the descending move towards the 0.9992 level. The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price start pushing slightly higher during the second half of European session.Therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair test 61.8% level of wave 1 at 0.9990. We can consider this move as end of the 2 wave (coloured blue). After we saw end of the 2 wave price started pushing higher in the 3 wave and reached new daily high at 1.0070 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe the continuation of the bullish mood and price touching 1.0130 level. Presently we can observe end of the 3 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 261.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9953-1.0050-0.9990) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0179 (200% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0238 (261.8% of wave 1). The support level at 1.0080 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Crude Oil Inventories,FOMC Meeting Minutes and CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9960 (S2) 0.9992 (S1) 1.0012 (PP) 1.0044 (R1) 1.0076 (R2) 1.0096 (R3) 1.0128

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0120 with Stop Loss at 1.0080, Take Profit 1 at 1.0179 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0238 are recommended.

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NZD/USD: Technical Analysis for May 16, 2012

2012-05-16 15:03:11 (читать в оригинале)

• Strong Support: 0.7530.
• Strong Resistance: 0.7718 & 0.7930.

Trading Recommendations:

According to previous events the price is expected to remain between 0.77 and 0.7930 levels.

• Buy-deals are recommended above 0.7535 with the first target seen at 0.7625. The movement is likely to resume to the point 0.7675 and further to the point 0.772.
  
• The decending movement is likely to begin from the level 0.7720 with 0.76 and 0.7535 seen as targets
  

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue the movement from the point 0.7531 (11% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the Daily chart). Thus, kiwi shows the signs of strength, following the breakdown of the highest level 0.7933. This fact can be considered as a good signal for BUY-deals above the point 11% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H4 chart with the first targets 0.76 and 0.772 (it will act as a strong resistance level and considered as appropriate for Take Profit orders). It is necessary to mention that this level will coincide with 23.6% of Fibonacci (0.772). However, in case of the reverse movement and if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level 0.772, the market will further decline to the 0.754 level, indicating a bearish mood.

 

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If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com .

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