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Greece, Spain and Italy are on the way to collapse. Fundamental Analysis for May 17, 2012

2012-05-17 18:16:46 (читать в оригинале)

Now the financial world faces the threat of a furious outbreak of the debt crisis in several European nations, starting with Greece, but closely followed by Spain and Italy.
The abrupt departure of more than 700 million euro of Greek banks in the environment causes the fear that the country's financial system will collapse, with unpredictable consequences for the moment not only for that nation, but also for others who follow in their footsteps.
Spain, in this context, manages to place debt every day, but at costs that are close to record highs. Something similar happens in Italy. In both cases, the recession and unemployment are too common words, and so far are not sustainable outputs to these problems.
This not only creates a climate of uncertainty, but also causes an ambiguous feeling. Germany and France, for now the two countries better off and maintainers of the eurozone, issue joint statements endorsing the continuation of Greece as a member of the same. However, these expressions may have other interpretations indoors.
The meeting with German Chancellor Merkel and the French leader Hollande was suggestive. There was so much urgency to go to Berlin, while the guests at the inauguration ceremony of Hollande were still in the rooms prepared for that purpose, to issue a statement in favor of Greece. If so, is that too complicated ahead.
And this seems so complicated and can take shape after the middle of the week. Greece has announced new elections, probably on June 17 (Greece is the cradle of democracy and cannot be programmed with a specific date for an election a month later), and the feeling prevailing in the southern nation is that they do accept European aid, but the austerity plan imposed in return.
The ambiguous feeling that we alluded to wonder just happens to be best for the eurozone. If you keep a country that has shown signs of failure in each of the commitments, or directly held her hand.
In the first case, the danger is that, before a collapse of its banks, other banks fall at the same time, and certainly much more important than bank premises. Spain and Italy should expect then a new opportunity to receive more aid, as if only there was a fire truck to three fires.
If Greece finally is out of the euro, as is thought to happen, the severity of the situation is the same, but with another approach. Discounting the country return to Hellenic drachma currency before the euro, but hyper devalued, which will generate inflation, economic chaos and an immediate isolation from the rest of the world, Europe will take charge of debt, which was signed, endorsed and implemented by the European Union, IMF, and private banks.
If this happens, the contagion effect on other banks will be instantaneous, and only the European Central Bank, through a monumental issue euro may bring some relief to the situation. The ECB appears today as the only entity with the key out of the crisis, although the high cost, similar to what the Fed did in the American banking crisis of 2008 and 2009.
Germany refuses, rightly, to take such actions. But with the new French government, and the pressure will in the near future, will have to give.
In any case, the euro would be affected negatively. About a month ago we said we did not see reason for the single currency as bullish behavior observed, being that half of Europe is in recession and a record unemployment.
An issue of euro can only generate its devaluation and a resurgence of inflation, which by now seems the lesser evil, if what is sought is that at least the next two years more nations do not follow the failed path of Greece.
In this context, every day becomes more blurred for Europe, the euro continues to perform multi-month lows, accompanied by the British pound, which had remained very strong in recent weeks. For the rest of the day, and even when we expect a recovery in both currencies, the euro has brackets 1.2630, where he spends a month uptrend line (derived from mid-2010), and 1.26, the pound has goals at 1.57, still far from the current 1.5830.
Weekly unemployment rate of the Philadelphia Fed planned for within a few minutes, pass almost unnoticed, to a market that has its eyes, minute by minute, the European crisis.

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for May 17, 2012

2012-05-17 17:12:47 (читать в оригинале)

 

The USD/CAD pair 4H chart revealed a strong bearish rejection of price level 1.0050, which pushed the USD/CAD pair downside towards 0.9990.
The lower limits of the Violet & Blue channels at 0.9990 were tested providing strong support for the USD/CAD pair.
Bullish rejection towards 0.9990 allowed the USD/CAD to initiate a new bullish swing towards 1.0155 establishing a significant support level at 1.0050.
Price Level 1.0100 is important on the 1H Chart as it corresponds to the lower limit of the Violet channel and to the mid-line of the Yellow channel where price action should be watched for a possible intraday position.
Breakdown of 1.0100 opens the way for Price Levels 1.0050 initially, then probably 1.0000. However, rejection with bullish price action towards this level will probably be a good BUY entry towards new higher levels.
It's important to note that the pair has an Intraday Resistance level at 1.0175 which corresponds to the upper limit of the Yellow channel which constitutes a valid SELL entry with SL located above 1.0205.

 

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for May 17, 2012

2012-05-17 17:04:00 (читать в оригинале)

 

The GBP/USD pair is demonstrating extensive bearish movement this week which is manifested in the Strongly Bearish Intraday Regression Channels.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair failed to fixate above the Price Zone 1.5960-1.5940 which enhanced quick decline towards 1.5860-1.5840.
The GBP/USD pair has exceeded its Average Daily Range for today which is located at 1.5845 which is suggestive for a possible bullish retracement soon.
GBP/USD is currently testing the lower limit of its Linear Regression Channels which are located around Price Level 1.5800.

 

Based on the previous analysis

The market offers a bullish opportunity at price level 1.5800 with a tight Stop Loss below 1.5760.

TP levels are to be located at 1.5840, 1.5885 and 1.5925.

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EUR/USD Today's Targets and Technical analysis

2012-05-17 15:54:36 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

                                       

 

 

Overview:
Euro is trying to recover despite ongoing crisis in Europe due to Greek and French elections. The resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.2757, if this level is achieved the next resistance will be at 1.2814. Next support level is 1.2650 and 1.2621. My advice is still not to sell, until recovery is achieved.

Recommendations:
If you are in sell-positions, you can close them between the 1.2681 level and 1.2663; the same range is suitable for the short-term buying as well.
If you are in buy-positions, then the suitable level range will be from 1.2757 to 1.2778 the same range is suitable for the near-term selling as well.

Trends:
Near Term: Downward
Short Term: Sideways
Medium Term: Sideways

Warning:
Analysis and technical levels are provided only for the educational and informative purposes. Please check also the fundamental analysis before opening every single position. Keep yourself away from the market, if the market is volatile. Always try to open positions with good price level. Remember Forex is like fishing, not like hunting.

Money Management Warning:
Never puto to risk more than 2 or 3% of your equity in a trade:
For example, 2% of 1,000 USD is 20$ and if your stop is 50 pips, then your lot size will be calculated as 20$/50 = 0.4 of insta lot which means it will be about 40 cents and similarly if your stop level is 100 pips than lot size will be calculated as follow 20$/100 = 0.2 Insta lots it will be about 20 cents.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 17, 2012

2012-05-17 15:48:32 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading upwards. During the Asian session we could observe ascending movement towards the 1.0130 level, where this major pair found resistance and started pushing lower in a European session. During the early New York session USD/CAD found support a few pips above 50EMA, and we could observe an upward move towards 1.0131 (new daily high). Today during the Asian session we could observe slight correction of this currency pair to the 1.0105 level. I expect to see price above 1.0180 for the end of the 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 200% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9953-1.0050-0.9990) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0179 (200% of wave 1). The support level at the 1.0105 level can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Geithner Speech, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and CAD Foreign Securities Purchases, Wholesale Sales m/m, that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0023 (S2) 1.0053 (S1) 1.0072 (PP) 1.0102 (R1) 1.0132 (R2) 1.0151 (R3) 1.0181

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0140 with Stop Loss at 1.0105 and Take Profit at 1.0180

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