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Fundamental Analysis for May 22, 2012

2012-05-22 12:08:41 (читать в оригинале)

 

What the Bank of Japan was looking for with little luck though for a long time, using different artificial mechanisms, happened due to the rating agency Fitch Ratings. Thus the aim to devalue the yen can be reached.
The yen fell unexpectedly in the Asian session on Tuesday, a move that is maintained in these hours, when Fitch cut the credit rating of Japan, and the negative outlook of the debt situation.
Besides, the Bank of Japan will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to determine probable stimuli for the local economy, which could extend the negative sentiment towards the yen.
This has a direct consequence: the yen might not be sought as a shelter for investors, as has happened so far, and in this case the dollar would take more force. So far, low European currencies had a positive effect on the yen, which has strengthened immediately. However, such measures could have an impact in the medium term, as also happened in his time with the Swiss franc.
Gold also could benefit from a lower yen, and if so, the Australian dollar could be bought by the operators.
On another note, the rate of consumer inflation in the UK showed an increase slightly less than expected, but it served to derail the pound, which came with difficulty recovering positions in recent days, alongside the euro. The British currency is close to 1.5730.
The euro, meanwhile, fell back and in the short term trend has become bearish, but its low does not seem sustainable over time. Only the break of 1.27 could accelerate a larger drop of the single currency, which has more prospects for recovery in the coming days.
Similar scenario can be observed as to the Australian dollar, after the price made a pullback to a trendline broken on Monday. The Aussie could take hold in the coming hours, looking back to parity against the dollar. Its referent, gold, also trades with a slightly upward trend, despite the drop in the European session.
As the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, linked to gold, do not define a short-term trend, while the Loonie is somewhat weaker in the short term. Meanwhile, the currency of Mexico could regain some of its losses in recent days, that had taken it about 14 pesos per dollar. The goal for the day is at the order of 13.5350.
For the American session, the most important data to follow is that existing home sales, at 10:00 Eastern. No significant changes are expected over the previous measurement.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD Pattern Reversal, May 22, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-05-22 11:23:47 (читать в оригинале)

 

The Australian dollar made a pullback from its trendline, broken on Monday, which increases the likelihood of take hold in the coming hours, looking back to the parity against the dollar.
According to the graph, we can see a figure reversal technique which is well known for Forex traders. Therefore, we recommend buying above 0.9940 with targets towards the resistance of 1.0130.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/CHF Forming Bottom at Fibonacci Support 1.4820/30 - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations

2012-05-22 11:13:01 (читать в оригинале)

 

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

The overall bullish wave structure remains intact as depicted above. D extension is expected over 1.5200 minimum. Please watch the 3 convergences above: 1. Past Resistance Turned Support Region (1.4800/20). 2. The inner trend line support passing through the 1.4800 region. 3. The 0.618 Fibonacci support at 1.4820. This region should produce a bounce in 1-2 days time. It is suggested to go long until the trend line is intact.

Trading Recommendations:

Buy around the 1.4820/30 region, Stop at 1.4750, Target at 1.5200 and 1.5400

 

Good Luck!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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EUR/JPY Expected to Resume Rally - Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations

2012-05-22 11:10:59 (читать в оригинале)

 

Technical Outlook and Chart Setup:

As depicted above, it is suggested to note the dropping trend line resistance from 117.00. This line is now acting as a strong support around the 100.20/30 region from where prices have bounced back and produced a Morning Star. Furthermore, we bring to your notice, the Right Shoulder is being carved out at the same level, producing an inverted Head and Shoulder. All this is enough evidence that bulls are ready to take control back and extend it up to 117.00. The 100.00 level should hold now.

Trading Recommendations:

Buy around 101.20/30, stop at 100.00 targetting to at least 117.00.

 

Good Luck!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 22, 2012

2012-05-22 10:42:18 (читать в оригинале)

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have four subwaves (red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 is developing from 124.59. The latter also has its subwaves (orange red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is developing from 127.56.

Now the resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 128.71-124.59, and expansions off 124.59-125.76-125.02.

Resistances:

- 125.74 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 126.16-19 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 126.65 = .50 ret

The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 131.75-127.76-129.32, 128.71-124.59-125.76.

Supports:

- 123.21 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.86 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-20 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com