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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 18, 2012

2012-06-18 10:36:00 (читать в оригинале)

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave A of medium term uptrend from 118.74 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is moving from 121.85. Within this wave we also have three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 122.07.

Now the resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 131.75-118.74, and expansions off 118.74-124.28-121.85, 121.85-124.21-122.07.

Resistances:

- 125.25-27 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.89 = expanded objective point (XOP)

The supports below are Fibonacci retracements of 122.07-124.58.

Supports:

- 123.62 = .382 ret
- 123.32 = .50 ret
- 123.03 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (35-50 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.

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Monday, June 18 end of the euro? Fundamental Analysis, for June 15, 2012

2012-06-15 18:09:55 (читать в оригинале)

 

This Friday is another day in the financial markets. All investors are focused on the elections in Greece to be held on Sunday, the result is totally uncertain.
The two dominant parties, Syriza and New Democracy, are leading the polls, and there is a clear advantage in recent polls taken this week in favor of either.
However, it is clear that a leftist victory, representing Syriza, which purpose is to get out of the euro as soon as possible and return to the old drachma (that will fall very well known Forex advertising firm, in other words " the drachma is easy to operate ", as the devaluation of it will be huge). If the victory goes to the New Democracy, the picture changes, but not much.
No party wants to pay the political cost of seeing its population remains impoverished, with the immediate history of the fall of Papandreou, and the weak current government, who could not even form a coalition government as it tried recently.
So, no matter who wins, everyone will try to negotiate with the rest of Europe about the conditions under which he was paid the money and he came to Greece to avoid falling into default, as it happened in March.
The question that arises is whether Greece’s leaving in the international context will determine that the euro will disappear? It is above all a political signal, strong, no doubt, but no more than that.
The opening of the Asian session on Monday will be dramatic, because the gaps are enormous and very sharp price movements occur.
It takes a few days to normalize the situation, and then return everything to normal. What is the problem? The real problem is to take highly leveraged positions today, and not knowing what to do with them this afternoon at the close of U.S. session.
No one can seriously believe that Europe will leave a political project discussed, that was set in error, because so are all the projects, but that is framed in a much larger project, which is to prevent a continent whose wars have been a constant in its history, continue to occur.
Europe has achieved, at least in the most part of the continent, to remove the borders. Having the European passport one can go from one end to another without much explanation. The major powers, with nuances, have moderated their political views, seeking continental unity. And because Greece takes a different decision, important part of that project, which is a further unifying currency to a continent, such as the euro, will disappear.
Sure, you read George Soros, saying that the euro has remaining 3 months of life, Christine Lagarde, replying that the term is much shorter and it stands to reason that things are too bad. Not well, but remember, dear reader, that not only you want to win in the market that you only use information you given, you are not forming news. These characters are with more interest and more shameful than yours.
What may happen during the day on Friday? Not much, indeed. Although try not to enter the U.S. market after noon, because that strange movements begin to occur, similar to profit-taking end of the month, or quarter and future actions.
It's rare, but now we must talk more than they can spend the day following that of what can happen now. The euro remains at a level that is comfortable in circumstances between 1.25 and 1.27, be ready to fire in any direction before the Greek election results on Sunday.
But there will be more than a boost. If possible, stay out of the market, wait for the momentum, and when everything returns to normal, and when the opinion makers stop predicting the end of humanity just because Greece is with the euro or not, when inflation rate and reports on employment appear or the GDP data are released, then they will be back in the headlines, and all will stop talking about chaos, drama or panic. No one saves an account for operating in the chaos, and yes you can lose everything in minutes.
The rest of the market from a tier seems to look what happens to the euro. The pound sterling sides completely, and seems to expect a story to quickly cross the barrier of 1.56, which has been denied these days. The Australian dollar points to a par with gold, like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, which is away from their lows, following the weak but has partially recovered WTI.
And the yen? Again it is very high, after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged (with 0.1% a year is not much room for maneuver), and that markets will predict a flurry of yen in the market to devalue, thing did not happen.

 

Rest assured markets have sufficient mechanisms to create waves of panic, and being put in place at these times, but it is just that. The euro will continue to exist, and as always, it will not be easy to operate, like the rest of the currencies.

 

If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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EUR/USD - Uncertainty for June 15, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-06-15 17:55:35 (читать в оригинале)

 

All this week the euro has traded in a range of 1.2460 - 1.2630 awaiting what will happen in Greece, there is too much uncertainty, so the market will not respect any technical analysis.
In the chart we see that the euro keeps its uptrend, therefore we recommend buying at 1.2520 or 1.2660, I recommend you to operate with very tight stop loss, if you cannot operate today.
As a suggestion, close all orders today before the closing of the platform. Do not allow an opening of 1.21 or 1.22 euro to destroy your mind, or conversely, that the same happens through an opening in 1.29 or 1.30.

If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

If you like my technical analysis, please vote for me by clicking here!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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AUD/USD - Uncertainty for June 15, 2012 (Daily Strategy)

2012-06-15 17:52:31 (читать в оригинале)

 

The Australian dollar stopped under the first weekly resistance 1.0070 in view of the uncertainty that this market is likely to be a setback to 23.6% of the Fibonacci line, or up to 61.8%. I recommend buying at 0.9950 or above 1.0070. The stop loss should be very tight at 0.9910.
As a suggestion, close all orders today before the closing of the platform. Do not allow an opening of the Aussie, by 0.96 or 0.95, to destroy your account, or on the opposite, the same goes for an opening at 1.02 or 1.04.

 

    If you need a personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

If you like my technical analysis, please vote for me by clicking here!

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Linear Regression Channels for June 15, 2012

2012-06-15 17:49:17 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

The USD/CAD pair has its Linear Regression channels tending to be bearish after demonstrating sideways movement with slight bearish tendency this week.

Today, the USD/CAD pair tested the lower limit of its narrow-ranged Yellow channel and the backside of the broken Violet channel around price level 1.0220 and failed to break it down.

In order to resume the bullish direction initially towards 1.0295, the USD/CAD pair needs to bypass its Intraday Resistance located at 1.0245 which corresponds to the mid-line of the Yellow channel.

Failure of USD/CAD to bypass 1.0245 brings the pair down towards price level 1.0200 which corresponds to a previous buttom where price action should be watched for a possible BUY entry.

Breakdown of 1.0170 invalidates the bullish scenario.

 

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