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Fundamental Analysis, for July 25, 2012

2012-07-25 18:15:21 (читать в оригинале)

 

Spain is about to collapse as the country was greatly affected by the European crisis debt. The German IFO was the lowest since June 2010. UK GDP plunged 0.7% which is equivalent to a recession that does not stop. And what about the market?
Yes, the markets have taken a break today. No good news from anywhere in truth, but European shares gained this afternoon more than 1.3% on average. The Dow Jones futures are rising right now, although the company’s data released on Tuesday was not good.
The markets are looking for reasons to leave the bearish wave that never ends, and any sign of encouragement used to return to shopping.
Now let’s examine the major currencies. Investors have put aside the dollar, and turned to ultra-safe assets until recently, and now the euro, the franc and the Canadian dollar appear to be at risk.
The single currency just filled the gap left by Monday's Asian session, and everything is given to continue its way upward in the coming hours, while the British pound, affected by the low UK GDP reading has failed to keep their way. Technically, however, divergences between the prices curve graphs GBP / USD 4-hour about the momentum indicator and RSI, which can anticipate an upward movement of the British currency.
The Australian dollar also fell to one hour amid the inflation data from Australia which is less than expected that is proving the recovery at the moment and looking to fill a gap left on Monday at 1.0370.
Higher oil prices, now stronger, also give strength to the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso which fell sharply on Tuesday and now quickly regain.
Data for new home sales in the U.S., which will be announced at 10:00 Eastern Time can give new impetus to the Dow Jones, and accelerate the recovery of the European currencies in the upcoming hours.
Also oil inventories published at 10:30 should be taken into account when operating with their currencies pegged.
What about gold? It is very high, almost $ 1600 per ounce (the Aussie support in this instance). As for the yen, it is left to the side and slightly falls. Will this peaceful period last for longer? It sounds easy although Spain continues to provide bad news. But everything has an end and the crisis too.

 

 

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 25, 2012

2012-07-25 16:25:49 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

 

Since July 12, the GBP/USD pair demonstrated an uptrend movement within the depicted blue channel until the last week when the pair managed to break down the lower limit of the channel around 1.5690 and the significant support level around 1.5660 reaching the next support level around 1.5580 which was expected to keep the pair above for some period. However, the bearish movement extended down to 1.5485.
During this week, we had many expected technical patterns, for example, Head & Shoulders reversal pattern and Price Triangle are broken to the downside and the backside of the broken blue channel. However, none of them was retested till the moment and probably none of them will be.
Today, the GBP/USD pair is trapped within the price range between 1.5520 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and 1.5475 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Bullish breakout above 1.5520 will probably open the way towards 1.5620 while bearish breakout below 1.5475 will probably enable 1.5395.
Price zone 1.5660 - 1.5690 is suggested as a SELL zone with TP levels located at 1.5600, 1.5555 then the final target level at 1.5440.
A break through above 1.5700 invalidates the bearish scenario mentioned above.

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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for July 25, 2012

2012-07-25 15:35:59 (читать в оригинале)

 

 

Since June 4, the USD/CAD pair movement is maintained within the mid-term slightly bearish depicted channel with its upper limit located around 1.0245.
Fibonacci level 50% is located at the price level of 1.0120 and 61.8% is located at 1.0045 which are considered to be strong Support levels.
During the last week, USD/CAD has been trapped within a narrow ranged price zone between 1.0170 -1.0230, the upper limit of which prevented further upside movement of the pair showing bearish price action which pushed the pair to the downside breaking down the lower limit of the consolidation range, the same price action took place yesterday towards 1.0230 pushing the USD/CAD pair towards 1.0170 (being tested now).
Breakdown of 1.0170 will open the way for a bearish movement towards 1.0125 then 1.0085.
Price zone between 1.0230 -1.0250 should be carefully watched for price action in order to take a profitable trade at this key level.

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GBP/USD: Intraday Forecast for July 25, 2012

2012-07-25 13:42:42 (читать в оригинале)

 

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5624.

 

 

Sideways Trend: prices are moving within a narrow range between 1.5500 and 1.5480.
GBP/USD "Pound-Dollar":
• Resistance: 1.5523 (Sell below this level).
• Support: 1.5400 (Buy above this level).

Trading Recommendations:

According to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5500 and 1.5480.

 

• The descending movement will probably be lower than 1.5523 level with the first targets at 1.5450 and 1.5403 levels.
• BUY deals are recommended above the 1.54 level with targets at 1.5473 and 1.5520 levels.

Overview:

It should be noticed that the market showed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in narrow sideways channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5500 and 1.5480, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.5400 level with their first target at the level of 1.5453. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.5483 and further to the level of 1.5520. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5523, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.5523. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.5530 level with the first target at 1.5550. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5403.

 

 

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

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EUR/CHF: Technical Analysis for July 25, 2012

2012-07-25 13:40:43 (читать в оригинале)

Forecast:

• At 1.2 a strong level (Support) will be formed providing a clear signal for Buy-deals with the target seen at the 1.254 level. Stop Loss is to be placed below 1.1850.

 

Overview:

EUR/CHF: The market is still showing signs of strength following the break above 1.2000. Therefore, it will turn to a strong support. In such case, a stronger rise should be seen towards 1.2524 resistance for confirmation. Moreover, the trend is still above 50% Fibonacci retracement level, thus it will be a good sign to buy above 1.2 and sell below 1.1850.

 

Types of Analysis:

 

• Fundamental analysis: the Swissie is also quoted amid the promise to “buy unlimited euro” in order to support this market.
• Technical analysis: on a daily chart the level of 1.2 coincides with the golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels) then it indicates for a bullish market.
• Sentiment analysis: psychology level is at 1.2000, than one should be patient to keep the trade till the end.
• Money management: always invest 3% - 7% of the capital (composite) per all trades, always risk (Stop Loss) 1% - 5% of the capital per all trades, and always trade high risk ratio trade at least 1/2.
• Period: long term.

 

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

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