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EUR/CHF: Technical Analysis (History tends to repeat itself) for November 27, 2012

2012-11-27 14:52:26 (читать в оригинале)

Forecast:
At 1.2/1.2030 a strong level (Support) will be formed providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 1.2270 level. Stop loss is to be placed below 1.1850.

History tends to repeat itself above the level of 1.2000 

 

Overview:

EUR/CHF: The market is still showing signs of strength following the break above 1.2000, now it could rebuy at the spot of 1.2030. Therefore, it will turn to a strong support. In such case, a stronger rise should be seen towards 1.2270 resistance for confirmation. Moreover, the trend is still above 50% Fibonacci retracement level, thus it will be a good sign to buy above 1.2 (rebuy at 1.2030), and sell below 1.1950.

Types of Analysis:

- Fundamental analysis: the Swissie is also quoted amid the promise to “buy unlimited euro” in order to support this market.
- Technical analysis: on a daily chart the level of 1.2 coincides with the golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels), then it indicates a bullish market.
- Sentiment analysis: psychological level is at 1.2000, in this case one should be patient to keep the trade till the end.
- Money management: always invest 3% - 7% of the capital (composite) per all trades, always risk (stop loss) 1% - 5% of the capital per all trades, and always trade high risk ratio - trade at least 1/2.
- Period: long-term.
- Stop loss must be set at 1.1950.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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Daily Trading Forecasts (November 27, 2012)

2012-11-27 14:50:11 (читать в оригинале)

EURUSD: The EURUSD pair consolidated throughout Monday and is trying to get corrected lower today. This is understandable since there ought to be a pullback in an uptrend, though it may be a short-lived one. The price may not go below the support level at 1.2950. The bullish bias is still valid.

 

USDCHF: The bearish trend on the chart is still valid here. The indicators still give a strong southward possibility, and therefore, the present rally is something that should not cause a concern (for the RSI 14 period has been in an oversold region for a long time). It is not expected that the present rally goes above the resistance line at 0.9300.

 

GBPUSD: Despite the current equilibrium phase on the chart, there is a strong barrier to any possible bearish threat at the accumulation zone of 1.6000. The EMAs still support the bullish scenario, even as the Williams’ % Range refuses to leave its overbought territory, i.e., above – 20. A good buy level is at the 1.6000.

 

USDJPY: Here too, in the midst of a bullish scenario, the level at 82.00 is doing a good job in checking further bearish attempts. The ‘buy’ signal is still valid – the price is still above the EMA and the RSI still manages to stay above the level 50. A good area to go long will be at the level of 82.00.

 

EURJPY: When the Williams’ % Range came down from the overbought region on the 4-chart that represents this cross, it was not a surprise. There must be bearish candles in an uptrend, and that is what is being experienced right now. The uptrend on the chart is still valid. The correction is not expected to go below the demand zone at 106.00. If the price is able to break the demand zone at 107.00 to the upside, it will be a signal of the renewal of the extant scenario.   

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for November 27, 2012

2012-11-27 13:46:33 (читать в оригинале)

Wave Analysis:

During the yesterday’s trading session the USD/CHF pair was in the narrow price range under the level of figure 93. Meanwhile, inner wave structure of wave C (or 3) which does not look completed gives reason to assume that the pair may start downward move towards target placed near the level of 0.9240. At the same time the indicators are still oversold. It indicates that probably in the short term an uptrend correction will start its building.

Targets for Up Wave:

0.9319 – 127.2% of Fibonacci

Targets for Down Wave 3 or C (presumably):

 

0.9281 – 161.8% of Fibonacci
0.9239 – 200.0% of Fibonacci

 

Summary and Trading Recommendations:

Wave 4 of an uptrend looks like a five-wave structure. Thus, it has transformed the whole trend pattern into a separate downtrend. Now wave 3 or C (presumably) is building, in its terms the quotes may drop to the level of 0.9281 and 0.9239 which is corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci. After this wave is completed the ascending movement in terms of a correctional wave may start with target 0.9319 and higher which is corresponding to 127.2% of Fibonacci. The pair has left the uptrend channel and went out of the limits of uptrend line. It proves the intention to build a complex downward correctional structure which may transform into a separate pulse long-term trend pattern. Divergence of MACD warns that the pair is ready to start its downward move.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for November 27, 2012

2012-11-27 12:54:35 (читать в оригинале)

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave 
Last week the GBP/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, impulsive (3) wave (coloued pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue) was developing. Yesterday during the Asian session we could observe descending movement from 132.44 towards the 131.12 level. Therefore, during the European and New York sessions this exotic currency started trading in a sideways move between 131.12 and 131.69 level. At the moment the GBP/JPY pair is trading around 131.80 level and we are expecting to see continuation of the bearish mood today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 130.85 (38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 132.44 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 130.37 (S2) 130.88 (S1) 131.19 (PP) 131.69 (R1) 132.20 (R2) 132.51 (R3) 133.01

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the price is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 131.70 with stop loss 132.44 and take profit at 130.85 are recommended. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for November 27, 2012

2012-11-27 12:52:37 (читать в оригинале)

USD/CHF Elliott Wave 
Since our last analysis the USD/CHF pair was trading in a slight downward move, impulsive 3 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue) was developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe the price trading in a sideways move between 0.9300 and 0.9275 level. Therefore, during the New York session the USD/CHF pair broke support and the price reached a new low at 0.9252 level. We can consider this move as the end of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured pink). At the moment the price is trading around 0.9282 and we are expecting to see the price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 50% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 0.9319 (50% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 0.9223 level as stop loss.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9224 (S2) 0.9243 (S1) 0.9256 (PP) 0.9275 (R1) 0.9294 (R2) 0.9307 (R3) 0.9326

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the price is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.92835 with stop loss 0.9223 and take profit at 0.9319 are recommended. 

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com